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The SHCOMP has de-risked – Riskiest leverage now at levels last seen in 2013...
While regulated (and reported) margin trading has fallen substantially from its peaks back in June it is important to realise that the level of gearing of this indication is capped at just 2X. This is...
View ArticleThe great leap backwards
Much concern now focuses around Chinese manipulation of market forces and the perception of its dilution of the stated reform goals. We have however been confused at how poor a job policy has done in...
View ArticleThe second wave of Chinese equity demand has begun
Back in April we published a series of notes looking at the potential future sources of Chinese equity demand in the months to come, partly to put the large increase in domestic retail demand into...
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China – the facts
Recent stories have been suggesting that the reality of Chinese valuations are at twice the levels they were at the peak in 2007 if we normalise for index weightings. If using average valuations to...
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China – what has changed. What to trade
With such an aggressive and broad sell off as we are seeing in China currently it is worth stepping back and assessing the causes and particularly what has changed. From a Chinese perspective, as far...
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China – trade the change, game the price. BUY weakness
Yesterday saw one of the broadest sell offs I can remember with very little dispersion across sectors within the SHCOMP. Almost every single sector in the SHCOMP was down within 1% of the 6.7% collapse...
View ArticleHeadline figures may miss the inflection
It is maybe mix not headline economic figures that should be the focus in China currently. Power utilisation figures, for example, have been poor, yet we must also consider China utilises 2X the...
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China – time to rotate
As we have been highlighting, much of the performance in recent days in China has been driven from a sentimental shift in the outlook for reform (SOE reform driving the initial A share rally while...
View ArticleChina – going all in
The positive headlines from China are coming thick and fast and our top pick themes from the last few months are reacting accordingly. Top Themes Fiscal stimulation through the one belt, one road...
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Chinese rally – led by SOE reform not loosening
Despite recent loosening in China, analysis suggests it is NOT loosening that is currently underwriting the rally, but reform. Most recently in fact it is SOE reform names that are leading the market...
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China – this rally has legs
History confirms that in China; It is the expectations of further loosening that will drive the market in the near term and as such, this rally has legs. As concerns grow of high interbank rates,...
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